Old: Function of Resources and Training = F (PESTO); now, F (PESTOF)

New: Function of Performance and “Confidence” in Future Performance F (Performance), based on METS=> F (MET performance against standards)

MET Performance can be broken out further into at least six components:

Crew/operator/commander performance

System Performance

Training System Performance

“DOTMLPF-P” stability

Time since last performance (to account for “Forgetting”/ Decay curve)

Conditions of actual performance vs NMET Conditions

So the Readiness equation looks like:

Readiness = F (Crew, operator performance, system performance, training system, DOTMLPF-P stability, time, Conditions)

If Old readiness = New readiness, then F (PESTOF) = F (NMET Performance)

So now, with all data made available, we can get to predictive performance as PESTOF degrade or improve!

These models will help net assessment and M&S programs inform “Capabilities-Based Assessments.”

For DRRS-N ESORTS views, this means we need to map resources by their value-added to meet specific NMET standards under the conditions- not just for tasks!

If you really get “Conditions”- then we could make specific conditions to cover each PESTOF category.

Conditions are also used to set the “level of challenge” for meeting task performance standards. Easier conditions should lead to better performance!

To fill in missing modeling data, we always need to capture conditions of actual performance, as well as the DOTMLPF-P system stability and time since last performance when we record performance and results. Our analyses then can track factors that we can control and experiment to improve overall mission performance.